Friday, April 6, 2018

Rupee Outlook by Sajal Gupta, Head Forex & Rates Edelweiss Securities on RBI policy

“While RBI kept policy rate unchanged, it unexpectedly revised inflation forecast lower for FY19 which added impetus to bond and equity rally. We still see a possibility of rate hike in FY19 possibly towards the second half of the year based on materialisation of various upside risks. We do not expect major gains in bond market from here on and 10yr benchmark yield is unlikely to breach 7.10% in near term. For USDINR, policy turned out to be largely non-event with global events to have more bearing on exchange rate in our view. Our near term range of USDINR is 64.80-65.50 with major risk surrounding ongoing US-China stand off on tariffs imposition”.

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